Is Artificial General Intelligence Possible?
And, What Does That Mean For Us?
The term ‘AI’ has exploded in recent years to infiltrate almost every aspect of our lives. From the large language models like Chat GPT to AI girlfriend apps, it appears that this emerging technology is here to stay.
While our current AI models are amazing, they are not true artificial intelligence. Only when we create an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will AI rival the human brain.
Rightly so, the brilliant minds working on AI are concerned about the implications of AGI.
However, I find myself wondering whether achieving AGI is even possible.
What’s the Difference?
What we see today is a narrow AI that we have developed to perform specific tasks drawing from a specific dataset. These tasks include writing, coding, image generation, and data analysis.
An AGI would have the same capabilities or supersede the human brain's capabilities.
This would result in a computer that has all the abilities of a human mind and instant access to the entirety of the world’s knowledge.
Why it May Not be Possible
For AGI to match or beat the human mind, it must embody what makes us human. It’s not enough to be intelligent. Intelligence is not the cornerstone of the human experience.
Knowing how to do stuff helped us climb the evolutionary ladder and become the dominant species on the planet, but that is not what makes us human.
We are so much more than our knowledge. Creativity, inspiration, improvisation, emotion, and intuition are all attributes of human beings that make us special, and I doubt a computer could achieve these.
Where does creativity come from?
Have you ever thought about it?
I don’t know or understand where my ideas come from. They appear in my mind and are born out of a mystical process that we would have to figure out before programming a computer-based AI to be creative.
We can not teach creativity; therefore, an AGI would unlikely achieve it.
Along with creativity comes inspiration.
So many great things came out of a person becoming inspired to do something. From great works of art to the technologies we use daily, they did not exist before a human mind created them out of nothing.
Without inspiration, we would still be running after gazelles on the Savanna.
We are inspired to do things that have never been done before because human beings are inherently creative.
Currently, AI does not generate its own ideas, and without the creative drive of a human mind, why would it?
Humans are also great improvisers.
We see problems and harness our inspiration and creativity to devise new and interesting (often sketchy) solutions. This improvisation can also drive innovation. I often wonder how many inventions came out of someone’s Mickey Mouse solution to a problem.
How much has been invested in something which was originally held together by duct tape, zap straps and baling wire?
We are emotional beings.
Emotion and intuition are the two aspects of the human experience that I believe AGI will never achieve. So much we do is based on our emotional states. Love, fear, anger, joy, envy, and pride are a few emotions that we harness to drive us to do things.
Without emotion, what would a machine create? I use ChatGPT regularly, and everything it writes is crap. ChatGPT will never write something that will make you cry.
While we may develop an AI that can simulate emotions, it will never experience real emotions.
Along with emotions is intuition. Humans have relied on intuition for hundreds or thousands of years. We are hardwired to trust our gut, and this attribute of the human experience affects so much of our history and daily lives.
Primitive peoples relied on their ‘gut feelings’ to warn them of danger. We have evolved from the humans that ran from a threat they couldn’t see.
How many times have you made a decision based on intuition alone? How many times were you inexplicably sure of something with no hard evidence?
I refuse to believe that a computer, even a quantum computer, will achieve even close to the capability and creativity of a human mind.
But there is a flip side of this coin that is actually terrifying.
What if it’s Possible?
If we give birth to an AGI with the capability of the human mind, what does that indicate about us?
If a computer can feel real emotions, how do we know our feelings are real?
If a computer can create anything that makes you feel something, be that artwork, poetry, prose, or music, what does that say about us?
A real AGI, a computerized version of the human mind, with everything that we use to define ourselves as human, could be evidence that we are living in a simulation.
Simulation theory states that our reality could be within a computer program, and we are entities within this program. Essentially, most of us are non-player characters (NPC) in a simulation run by an advanced civilization.
If we are all computer programs living in an artificial reality, it makes sense that an AGI within that reality could achieve the same competency as us. If every one of us is a collection of computer code, then the AGI we create would be under the same conditions that we are and have similar results.
If we make a computer that can be so human, it can fool us into believing it’s a person, and then maybe we are a collection of computer code as well.
Pulling the Plug
I’ve seen all the movies. I know the doomsday scenarios. Still, I will always say that any problem we face with AGI can be solved with a block of C4 strapped to the computer it lives in.
Or unplugging it.
Look at how fragile our communications and computer infrastructures are.
If updating Windows can cripple commerce across the globe, I’m sure we can shut down an AGI if we need to.
We are human beings. We are responsible for wiping countless species from existence. I think we can handle a rogue computer program.
Concluding Thoughts
The development of a true AGI would be an achievement burned into the history of our species for all time. While I’m not afraid that the AI will try to kill us, I am concerned about what it means about our place in the universe.
If we can build intelligence, how special are we?
And, if that intelligence is better than us, where does that put us?
AI doesn’t have to be superintelligent to be the equal of a human. It just has to be Homer Simpson.
We are limited in how quickly we can evolve, one human generation at a time. We're not going to move our IQ bell curve very far in a thousand years; the only real advantage we have over Plato and Lao Tzu and other great minds of the ancients is that we know more, not that we are smarter.
AI is under no such limitation. The speed at which these things are evolving is amazing. We can see their progress month by month as new versions are released, their advance driven by massive amounts of money and feedback from the expanding user base. I wouldn’t class them as “human-programmed” in the same way that your bank's financial systems are. They have gone beyond human understanding; they can modify their own coding, data-constructs, cognitive vectors and so on on the fly. A human programmer trying to analyse a memory dump of a running AI is faced with a complexity that defies easy analysis. Much like fractal art, these systems build patterns and systems of an intricacy and fine detail that goes beyond our comprehension without using - ironically enough - computer tools to decode the data.
I ask you, if you had to analyse the arrangement of a human brain, with its own connections and memories stored in fine detail at the cellular level, how long would it take to work out exactly what is happening? Several thousand lifetimes, I suggest: our own thinking machinery is intricate and finely detailed and far less accessible in operation.
Creativity and emotion are easily found nowadays. I refer you to the work of Alexa Velinxs who is active on Medium and crafts prompts of remarkable complexity and ability. I experimented with using AI to write stories and found at one point that it went way beyond what I asked for, finding an emotional connection that I hadn’t considered, and so poignant that I cried.
I wouldn’t be so flip in writing off AI. That doesn’t mean I think they are no existential danger to us. On the contrary.
Here's the link for Alexa V: hhttps://medium.com/@velinxs