Why The United States Will Not Invade Canada
And One Scenario Where It Could Happen
President Trump continues to refer to the True North Strong and Free as the 51st state. Concerns about the potential for military invasion are being raised throughout our population. The rhetoric is so pervasive that one of my co-workers is researching countries he can flee to in the event of an invasion.
My time in the military is almost two decades in the rearview mirror but the knowledge my service gave me allows me to say that a military invasion of Canada is not going to happen.
My assertion boils down to five main issues the United States would face if they were to roll across the forty-nine parallel.
A Soldier’s Duty
One thing hammered into the skulls of every eighteen-year-old kid who signs up to fight for their country.
You MUST refuse to follow an unlawful order.
Invading Canada without provocation violates the UN Charter and the NATO treaty making any order to do so unlawful. The generals MUST refuse such an order. If they obey, once the dust settles they’ll face justice in The Hague.
I doubt that many commanders throughout the chain of command would obey the order to invade Canada. I suspect President Trump would find himself in the middle of a military coup if he tried to issue such a command.
At the minimum, he’d be impeached again.
NATO and the Crown
I think that the people who believe that we are about to see Abrams tanks cruise across the border forget that Canada is a NATO member. Not only are we a NATO member but a part of the British Commonwealth.
Since we are a NATO member, an attack on us would enact Article Five of the NATO treaty:
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
 — NATO Treaty Article Five
Currently, there are 32 NATO members. If the United States invades Canada, triggering Article Five of the NATO treaty, thirty nations will consider this an attack on them.
Keep in mind that the United Kingdom and France have nuclear weapons.
It’s not realistic to think that all thirty countries would send troops to defend Canada. However, several major players understand that they owe a deep historical debt to Canada because of our involvement in the world wars.
The United Kingdom, France, and The Netherlands know that Canada sacrificed over a hundred thousand of our young men defending them in two global conflicts that did not directly involve us.
These three countries’ armed forces combined are over half a million strong.
The British Commonwealth has Fifty-Six members. There is no automatic involvement of any state in the event of an invasion of another state, but it’s a certainty that the major players of New Zealand, Australia, The United Kingdom, India, and Pakistan are not going to sit idly by and watch a fellow commonwealth nation have their sovereignty violated.
I suspect China and Russia will put their support behind us as well and they have a combined military might of six million.
In short, a US invasion would result in a significant number of countries around the world looking to them as a hostile nation and taking action against them. This action could be in the form of troops on the ground, military aid of weapons and support, or economic sanctions.
The result is a disaster for the United States at home and abroad.
Canada is Really, Really, Really Big
We are the second largest country in the world. The United States has never gone to war with a country with the land mass that we have.
Not by a long shot.
It is not an exaggeration to say that it is impossible to control a nation as large as we are without the cooperation of the population.
A population that will NOT cooperate!
Guerrilla Warfare
The initial invasion of Canada would not be overly difficult. Ninety percent of the population lives within 150 miles of the border which means that controlling the government, major population centers, and ports is fairly simple.
What most forget is that our natural resources are not within that zone.
The map above shows the highway network in Canada. Notice how few highways go North to where the resources are. It would be no problem to either control or render these routes impassable.
Enter the Canadian Armed Forces which would have been noticeably absent from the initial invasion.
In a one-on-one fight, we can not win against the larger and better-equipped American Military. As a guerrilla force, the over 80,000 CAF members would blend into the civilian population. Using hit-and-run tactics, planting IEDs, and conducting sabotage operations we will wear down the invading army.
Don’t forget about the large number of veterans and firearms owners that will join the fight.
During the American Revolution it is claimed that only 3% of the population took up arms and fought. This number is a little suspect but let's assume that 1% of Canadians would fight.
That is a guerilla force of 400,000 Canadians. Currently, there are an estimated 12.7 million firearms in civilian hands in Canada. So outfitting this guerilla army is not going to be an issue and don’t forget the old adage:
One gun can get you more.
Throughout history, the Armed Forces of the United States has not done well against guerrilla warfare. Unconventional forces are their Achilles heel. It will take a long time to drive the invaders from our country, but Canada will prevail by exploiting the weaknesses of the larger and more technologically advanced invaders.
As an unconventional force, we will be free of the shackles of the Geneva Conventions. Look up the outright war crimes committed by Canadian soldiers during World War One. I am certain that we would do far worse to an invading American Military.
There is another aspect of this too.
Over 800,000 Canadians live in the US and it is reasonable to think that some of them would take up arms against the states. These sleeper cells of pissed-off canucks look like the Americans and speak the same language allowing them to seamlessly move undetected through the population.
The wide availability of firearms and equipment makes outfitting them simple.
Imagine dozens of attacks on military installations, and key infrastructure. Disabling large parts of the continental United States power grid is shockingly simple and will be devastating to the nation as a whole.
When Opportunity Knocks
For decades the United States has considered itself the policeman of the world. One aircraft carrier can topple nations by themselves and this military might keeps many belligerent nations in check.
Now imagine what would happen when they get bogged down in an ill-advised invasion of Canada.
China may take the opportunity to invade Taiwan, and Russia may reclaim territories it’s been eyeing. North Korea will probably cross the DMZ and dozens of other nations who fear the wrath of the Americans would do what they wish now that they are engaged in an expensive invasion and counter-insurgency.
They will lose so much of their influence and control abroad, crippling their economy. Trade will be cut off, their footholds in other nations threatened and dozens of new enemies will pop out to take advantage of their preoccupation with Canada.
It’s Not Going to Happen Unless…
I see one remote possibility.
It’s possible that the American government could orchestrate an economic collapse in Canada. This will throw the nation into chaos. Since they share a border with us they can use the crisis to move ‘peacekeepers’ in to secure the major population centers and infrastructure.
This ‘soft invasion’ is possible but remember that we are a part of the UN. I hope that whoever is the Prime Minister at the time is smart enough to go to the UN for peacekeepers subverting the ability of Trump to use Peacekeeping as a front to annex us.
Even if they managed to send in peacekeepers the response of the CAF, veterans, and firearms owners would be the same as a full-scale invasion. Once the bullets start flying, and fly they will, the international community must respond either militarily or economically.
So relax people, we are not going to be invaded.
And we will NEVER be the 51st state!